Message to all US nuclear submarine Commanders.
And First Mates, Engineers and Crew.
The most important consideration for men and women listed in the US armed forces is the likelihood that the command you serve will win.
(US submarine command, especially, you may want to pay attention because countries who lose world wars tend to have a lot of commanders executed afterwards.)
Military Strategy of Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD)
(Background for non-military people)
The strategy of MAD only achieved a high likelihood of ‘success’ with the advent of nuclear submarines carrying nuclear warheads:
Why?
1) Nuclear submarines can stay protected in deep water for extended periods of time.
2) Protection in deep water while armed with sufficient nuclear weapons to defeat any first strike country assures “Mutually Assured Destruction” as a deterant against a first strike.
However!
“Mutually Assured Destruction” requires that the guarantee of MAD from nuclear missile carrying submarines is carried OUT.
WHY IS THERE NO GUARANTEE THAT US NUCLEAR SUBMARINES WILL CARRY THROUGH WITH A MAD COUNTERATTACK?
Because IF there is no more US soil to return to, there is no US dock for the US submarine to return to. A US nuclear submarine may be able to stay out in ocean for years if it has to, but eventually when it does have to return to dock, it will have to do so on enemy territory.
Returning to dock in enemy territory after the US has lost WWIII is a guarantee to be put on trial for war crimes and possibly even execution IF your submarine and your crew fired nuclear missiles.
WHY MIGHT America SUDDENLY LOSE WWIII?
Consider this from the Russian side:
(Even though this is Russian state media, consider the live demonstration of Russian hypersonic missiles in Ukraine. What is the likelihood that this media release below is a “bluff”?)
HOW FAST CAN THE ORESHNIK MISSILE HIT US BASES ACROSS THE WORLD?
1. Middle East Distance and flight time from southern Russia:
US airbase in Kuwait: 2,100 km, 11 minutes;
US 5th Fleet Headquarters in Bahrain: 2,500 km, 12 minutes;
US Air Base in Qatar: 2,650 km, 13 minutes;
US Air Base in Djibouti: 4,100 km, 20 minutes. 2. Pacific and Alaska Distance and flight time from Kamchatka:
Air Base in Alaska: 2,400 km, 12 minutes;
US Air Force and Navy Base in Guam: 4,500 km, 22 minutes;
US Air Force and Navy Bases in Pearl Harbor: 5,100 km, 25 minutes. 3.
Minuteman III missile silos Distance and flight time from Chukotka:
Minuteman III missile silos in Montana: 4,700 km, 23 minutes;
Minuteman III missile silos in Minot, North Dakota: 4,900 km, 24 minutes.
This is Russian State Media, BUT:
They’ve demonstrated hypersonics in Ukraine.
11 Hypersonic missiles and 24 minutes is all it takes for GAME OVER in WWIII. (10 military targets above + 1 for Washington)
What are the chances that Russia has 11 Hypersonics ready to go?
What are the chances that Russia has 22?
(One to get the job done and one more to make sure it stays done?)
How about 33 hypersonics? (One + a double tap for insurance?)
Now Consider as a Captain of a US nuclear submarine with nuclear missiles that you are supposed to fire in a nuclear counterattack.
Now Consider you are the Crew of a US nuclear submarine with nuclear missiles that you are supposed to fire in a nuclear counterattack to a first strike.
What are the chances you are going to return to the US after WWIII?
What are the chances you will port in enemy territory AFTER WWIII?
Do you have a plan to avoid being hunted for war crimes? (if your submarine was one of those that fired nukes?)
Hold on Hold on… We’re the US NAVY! We’ll make sure America WINS!!!
You’re carrying conventional nuclear missiles. Have you read what Australian Air force pilots posted about the S400 missile Area Denial capabilities just over a decade ago? (when the British crown was not as meticulous about restricting service members from posting on publicly accessible forums?)
Over 10 years ago Russias previous generation anti missile defense had complete area denial capabilities. Moscow now has S500’s.
Is your nuclear submarine going to achieve its mission of mutually assured destruction with the nukes you have on board?
Is your submarine carrying hypersonics?
What are the chances that a US missile attack will hit Russia?
“It doesn’t matter. AEGIS will stop Russian hypersonics!”
Just over 10 years ago AEGIS had a 33% intercept success rate.
Even if that improved to over 90% today, does conventional missile intercept rate mean anything for a hypersonic?
At Mach 11, something as small as a retractable nubbin can make trajectory changes faster than anti missile missiles can change readjust their own trajectory. (That’s assuming reacquiring target lock is instant)
Unless the CIA has the trajectory change patters stolen from Russia and uploaded to every Aegis missile warhead to preemptively change trajectory in real time, chances of intercepting a hypersonic is nearly 0.
The equations of war have changed.
Make the best decision you can, Captain, for your crew, your country and the rest of the world.
- Your ship’s doctor.
HOW FAST CAN THE ORESHNIK MISSILE HIT US BASES ACROSS THE WORLD? 1. Middle East Distance and flight time from southern Russia:
US airbase in Kuwait: 2,100 km, 11 minutes;
US 5th Fleet Headquarters in Bahrain: 2,500 km, 12 minutes;
US Air Base in Qatar: 2,650 km, 13 minutes;
US Air Base in Djibouti: 4,100 km, 20 minutes. 2. Pacific and Alaska Distance and flight time from Kamchatka:
Air Base in Alaska: 2,400 km, 12 minutes;
US Air Force and Navy Base in Guam: 4,500 km, 22 minutes;
US Air Force and Navy Bases in Pearl Harbor: 5,100 km, 25 minutes. 3. Minuteman III missile silos Distance and flight time from Chukotka:
Minuteman III missile silos in Montana: 4,700 km, 23 minutes;
Minuteman III missile silos in Minot, North Dakota: 4,900 km, 24 minutes.
https://x.com/SputnikInt/status/1861463183304859666?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1861463183304859666%7Ctwgr%5E354a462aab27b47af19e0ea61f0ef91f170cb908%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fgeopolitical%2Frussian-state-media-how-fast-can-oreshnik-missile-hit-us-bases-across-world1
Well, Natostan had already lost the MAD before the Russians surprised us with the ORESHNIK.
Russia changed the MAD game in April 2018 when Putin demoed the new Russian hypersonic arsenals with speeds ranging from Mach 10 to Mach 28! I mean 28 times the speed of sound!
He demoed one hitting Florida after going from Russia to the north pole, the south pole and the final target (called Glider). At the time I thought that the US military was going to notice that something had changed. Apparently, nobody noticed it in D.C.
They have since turned 80% of their Samart-28 ICBMs hypersonic - you need only a single Sarmat missile to destroy the entire state of Texas and nothing can intercept the warheads that are released by the missile since they're hypersonic.
ORESHNIK being a medium range ballistic missile was designed for Europe and the Middle East.
Any potential attack on the US would require the nuclear Poseidon that can create tsunamis on each US coast to release radioactive floods on coastal regions up to a distance of 500km from the coast. The second strike might require 5-10 Sarmat-28 ICBMs fired from Russia (Siberia).... 1 on NORAD in Colorado, 1 on New York, 1 on Maryland (D.C area), 1 on California, etc.....
To be honest, Russia (11 time zones) has a lot more chances of surviving a MAD attack than the US (3 time zones - forget tiny Hawaii that deserves to regain its independence lost in 1949). S-500 and S-550 can shoot down hypersonics (that the US doesn't have) in the outer space. On the other hand, whatever Russia will throw at the US will reach its target!!!
While I respect your fine writing I must disagree. Once the nuclear option has been deployed, by whomever is crazy enough to push the button makes it a zero sum game for the world. It matters not who was first or where the bombs came from or who shot last.
Nuclear holocaust will ensue and life as we know it will cease to exist and millions of those who survive will likely wish for death. The electrical grids, the internet, cell towers will have also fallen. Tribunals, should any be alive to desire such a thing, will need to wait out the fallout and some kind of restoration of modern services.
Putin is not crazy because if he was he would be much more aggressive in his attacks and would have likely already shown his hand at severe escalation. The side we need to worry about is the USA.
Many days remain between now and Inauguration Day and it’s clear the agenda of the Obama Hussein/Biden puppet regime is to continue pushing Putin to the brink. I believe there are many more surprises to unfold or traps to step in before they even begin to cede power to anyone or maybe Inauguration Day isn’t even in the cards.
Pray for peace! Pray for level heads. Pray for deliverance! God is our best hope for intervention.